Rigetti Shares Fall 5% as Q3 Revenue Slides 28% to $1.4 Million

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) dropped 5% to $11.52 on November 11 after its Q3 2026 report showed revenue of $1.4 million, down 28% year over year and far below the $3.52 million consensus compiled by Fiscal.ai.

The company released its numbers after the bell on November 10. The quarter produced no recognized hardware revenue at all, and the adjusted loss of $0.06 per share also missed expectations; Fiscal.ai's consensus had projected a $0.05 loss.

The miss lands during a crowded earnings week for quantum computing stocks, and it sets the company apart from peers that are moving in different directions. IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) fell 2% to $34.22, while D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ:QBTS) rose 2% to $10.71. Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ:QUBT) rounds out the group. The selling on November 11 looks concentrated in Rigetti.

What does the 2026 outlook say?

Rigetti expects full-year 2026 revenue of about $20 million, trailing Fiscal.ai's analyst consensus of $22.78 million. That guidance carries a single critical assumption: customer acceptance of a 108-qubit system ordered by India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), with the associated revenue recognized in Q4 2026.

In other words, one delivery in one quarter decides whether the company meets its own forecast. A delay would push the full-year number further below consensus.

On the November 10 earnings call, Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni framed the state of the industry in blunt terms. He said data center operators need clear proof that quantum computing beats classical computers before they invest, and the technology is not there yet.

"Our general view is that quantum computing is still very much in the R&D phase," Kulkarni said. "We need to perfect the technology before we can really expect commercial sales to take off."

The comment matters because it comes from a company selling systems today, not a research lab. It frames the gap between quantum computing's technical progress and its commercial reality, the central question hanging over every stock in the sector.

Where the technical and financial picture brightens

Hardware progress offered some balance to the weak quarter. Rigetti's Cepheus-1-108Q system reached a 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity in Q3, hitting its target.

The balance sheet adds a buffer. Rigetti reported $497.1 million in cash and investments as of September 30 and no debt. That compares with annual revenue measured in the tens of millions at best, giving the company years of runway if spending stays contained.

The company also holds a definitive agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100 million, which backs its push toward a 300-plus-qubit system by mid-2028. The department's equity stake, however, adds dilution to a list of pressures that already includes rising operating expenses and a growing operating loss.

How analysts reacted

Two brokerages cut their price targets on November 11 while keeping positive ratings.

• Needham cut its Rigetti price target to $15 from $31 and kept a Buy rating, attributing the shortfall to the timing of system deliveries.
• Mizuho trimmed its target to $17 from $22 and maintained an Outperform rating, citing "soft" guidance.

Both cuts exceed 25% in target reductions, a sharp repricing for a single quarter's report, though neither firm abandoned its recommendation.

What do IonQ and D-Wave reveal about the selloff?

IonQ's 2% decline is shallower than Rigetti's, and it arrives after IonQ raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance on November 5. The divergence between the two stocks in the same week shows the market is punishing outlooks, not the sector as a whole.

D-Wave's 2% gain follows a selloff of its own. Its shares sank on November 10 after its earnings laid bare quantum computing's commercial growing pains. Revenue rose 20.7% year over year to $4.51 million in Q3, beating the consensus estimate, while the company's per-share loss missed expectations. Nine-month bookings jumped 611%, a figure that suggests demand is building even as profits remain distant.

Broader markets added another layer to the trading session. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee described the latest inflation report as "borderline disturbing" as policymakers consider more rate increases, a backdrop that weighs on speculative growth names.

How does Rigetti's business model differ from its peers?

Rigetti builds superconducting, chiplet-based gate-model quantum computers and sells them on-premises to governments, national labs and universities, along with cloud access. That project-based model makes revenue lumpy, because recognition depends on customer acceptance of a small number of systems. Q3 2026, with zero hardware revenue, is the model in miniature.

Its competitors spread risk across different architectures and revenue lines:

• IonQ runs a broader platform built on trapped-ion technology, adding its own foundry through SkyWater plus security, networking and sensing lines.
• D-Wave sells production-ready annealing systems and cloud access while it develops gate-model machines, giving it a dual-platform pitch.
• Quantum Computing Inc. takes a photonic approach that operates at room temperature, without the cryogenic infrastructure that superconducting systems need.

The contrast explains why the same sector produced a 5% loss, a 2% loss and a 2% gain on the same morning. Investors are differentiating by architecture, customer base and revenue visibility.

Why the C-DAC milestone sets up a pivotal Q4

Rigetti now faces one question for the rest of 2026: whether C-DAC accepts its system in time for the company to recognize that revenue in Q4. The entire gap between guidance and consensus effectively rests on that acceptance.

The bull case rests on three items: the fidelity gains on Cepheus-1-108Q, the $497.1 million cash buffer, and the Commerce Department agreement worth up to $100 million. The bear case rests on execution risk, dilution and a CEO who says the industry's commercial takeoff is not yet possible.

Until the C-DAC acceptance finalizes, Rigetti's supporters must weigh those strengths against the risk that the fourth quarter mirrors the third: a system built, a target hit, and no revenue booked.