D-Wave and Rigetti Face Q3 Test After 62% and 50% Stock Slides

D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ:QBTS) has lost 62.0% of its value year to date, and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) has lost 50.2%. Both companies report third-quarter results on Tuesday, November 10, and each must show investors that revenue growth can justify the cash it burns to get there.

The two reports land on the same day by scheduling accident and by market logic. D-Wave reports before the market opens and holds a webcast at 8:00 a.m. ET. Rigetti reports after the close and holds its call at 5:00 p.m. ET. In Monday premarket trading, D-Wave stood at $10.68 and Rigetti at $11.58. Over the past year the two stocks are down 63.6% and 64.5%, respectively.

The declines matter beyond the two tickers. Quantum computing has attracted billions in public-market capital on promises of machines that outrun classical hardware, and the sector's smaller listed names trade on bookings, backlog and government contracts rather than profits. When those inputs disappoint, the stocks reprice violently. Tuesday's numbers will test whether the market's patience with pre-revenue-scale quantum companies still holds.

What do analysts expect from each report?

Sell-side consensus sets a low bar, but a widening one. The figures below come from analyst estimates compiled ahead of the reports.

• Q3 2026 EPS consensus: D-Wave at a loss of $0.0988; Rigetti at a loss of $0.0513.
• Year-ago comparison: D-Wave posted a loss of $0.05 in Q3 2025; Rigetti posted a loss of $0.03.
• Q3 2026 revenue consensus: $4,337,120 for D-Wave; $3,675,950 for Rigetti.
• Implied year-over-year revenue growth: 16.0% for D-Wave; 88.8% for Rigetti.
• Analyst coverage: 16 revenue analysts cover D-Wave; 12 cover Rigetti.
• Full-year 2026 EPS consensus: a loss of $0.2971 for D-Wave; a loss of $0.1870 for Rigetti.
• Full-year 2026 revenue consensus: $42,471,240 for D-Wave, implying 72.7% growth; $23,259,000 for Rigetti, implying 228.1% growth.

The pattern is consistent across both companies: losses per share expected to roughly double from a year earlier, paired with steep revenue growth assumptions that leave little room for operational stumbles.

Can D-Wave turn record bookings into revenue?

D-Wave enters the quarter with a credibility problem on the top line. Second-quarter revenue of $3.08 million missed expectations by 23.6%. That miss sits against a bookings picture management has promoted all year: first-half bookings rose to $35.5 million, and backlog reached $40.7 million.

Management guided for third-quarter revenue to come in "up modestly" from the second quarter. The company expects most of the year's revenue to land in the fourth quarter, when two annealing systems ship. That timing makes Tuesday's print a checkpoint rather than a verdict — but a checkpoint with a hard floor. If D-Wave's Q3 revenue comes in at or below $3.08 million, management's own guidance for a sequential increase falls short.

The balance sheet tells a second story. Cash and investments fell to $546.2 million, driven mostly by the roughly $250 million Quantum Circuits acquisition. The adjusted EBITDA loss grew to $37.1 million.

D-Wave's first-quarter release framed the long-term case in its own words: "D-Wave's combination of commercial proof, technical breadth, and a differentiated path to gate-model error correction and scaling will be increasingly prominent as this market matures."

The company also has partners willing to speak for it. IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) CEO Niccolo De Masi said IonQ "extended our multi-year collaboration with D-Wave" at SkyWater.

Three items will decide whether Tuesday counts as progress for D-Wave: new deals beyond the Florida Atlantic University agreement, confirmation that both Q4 system shipments remain on schedule, and movement on the 17-qubit gate-model system that management has said remains on track for delivery this year. Operating expenses deserve equal attention, given the widening EBITDA loss.

Is Rigetti's growth story intact after a lumpy quarter?

Rigetti spent 2025 missing revenue estimates in all four quarters. It then broke the streak with $5.14 million in Q2 2026 revenue, up 185.3% year over year and ahead of consensus.

The trajectory depends heavily on a single order. Management expects to recognize the $8.4 million C-DAC system order in the fourth quarter, which makes the Q3 report a timing test: investors need confirmation that the recognition schedule has not slipped.

Rigetti's Q2 release leaned on its work with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) and the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, saying the collaboration "reflects growing demand for our approach."

The balance sheet is cleaner than D-Wave's, at least on debt. Liquidity came to $541.3 million with no debt outstanding. Capital spending rose to $12.0 million, and operating cash outflow in Q2 ran at $15.78 million — the number to watch on Tuesday, since holding burn near that level supports the growth story.

Two technical and policy markers round out the checklist. Investors will look for progress toward the targeted 99.5% two-qubit fidelity and any movement on the Commerce Department letter of intent worth up to $100 million. That government deal carries a cost: it would require issuing equity, diluting existing holders to fund the path forward.

How wide is the gap to the sector leader?

IonQ's results show what scale looks like in this market, and how far the two challengers sit from it. De Masi reported IonQ third-quarter revenue of $173.8 million. That single quarter exceeds the full-year 2026 revenue consensus for D-Wave and Rigetti combined.

The commentary around the sector has grown more selective. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said, "Quantum computer is not the next big thing, but it is a big thing." Jordi Visser said on The Pomp Podcast that "Quantum is a hardware issue." Steve Grasso, speaking on CNBC's Fast Money, argued the stronger names in the group are "solving it, not the whole quantum space. And they burn a ton of cash."

That last point is the one Tuesday's reports must answer directly. Both companies hold more than half a billion dollars in liquidity, but both continue to post losses per share that consensus expects to double year over year, and both carry revenue bases measured in single-digit millions per quarter against nine-figure cash piles.

What counts as a win on Tuesday?

The tests are concrete and few. D-Wave needs bookings beyond the Florida Atlantic University deal and confirmation that both fourth-quarter system shipments stay on track. Rigetti needs to hold its C-DAC timeline and keep operating cash outflow close to Q2's $15.78 million.

One check is arithmetic. D-Wave's revenue must come in above $3.08 million, or management's own guidance for a modest sequential increase fails on its own terms. Both companies have cash to fund years of operation at current burn rates; what they have not yet shown is revenue scaling fast enough to close the gap IonQ has already opened.