NVIDIA and AMD Enter January With Growth, Export Risk

Both NVIDIA and AMD reported record AI quarters: NVIDIA generated $96.22 billion in revenue, up 105.8% year over year, and AMD generated $13.38 billion, as Washington pressed for tighter controls on advanced-chip exports in January.

24/7 Wall St. argued that neither company faces an imminent chokeout. Its analysis instead points to a tighter ceiling on foreign growth while both core AI businesses keep expanding.

The stakes are direct: these chips power AI data centers, while export licensing decides which foreign customers can buy them. The source’s conclusion is that Congress can limit overseas expansion without stopping either AI buildout.

What do the record quarters show?

24/7 Wall St. said NVIDIA had doubled revenue at a scale no other chipmaker had reached, and Vera Rubin production shipments began in August. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang put the commercial shift plainly: “Now, compute is revenue.”

The company’s Data Center networking revenue rose 138%, which the report read as evidence that customers are buying complete AI factories rather than isolated chips.

24/7 Wall St. reported that AMD’s $13.38 billion revenue beat the $13.08 billion consensus. Data Center sales reached $8.55 billion, up 97%, and now make up 64% of company revenue.

Anthropic, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle brought their first Helios racks online, according to the report. AMD’s gaming revenue fell 40% late in the console cycle, a drag the source described as cyclical.

The report also linked separate coverage of suppliers of power, cooling and networking gear, describing the same expansion as a broader infrastructure cycle extending beyond the two chipmakers.

The comparison also frames the stakes for AI buyers. NVIDIA’s networking growth suggests demand extends beyond processors, while AMD’s 64% Data Center mix ties its core business to the same build cycle. Both companies still need racks to ship, software to work and licenses to clear.

How do the two platforms compare?

24/7 Wall St. laid out the operating contrast:

• NVIDIA’s flagship platform: Vera Rubin and Blackwell Ultra; AMD’s: Helios racks and MI450 Series.
• Non-GAAP gross margin: NVIDIA 75.0%; AMD 56%.
• Next-quarter revenue guide: NVIDIA $108.0 billion +/- 2%; AMD about $17 billion +/- 3%.
• China exposure: NVIDIA left China out of its outlook; AMD cited export rules as a risk.

The table frames two different exposures. NVIDIA enters policy pressure with a much larger revenue base and a higher gross margin, while AMD’s results increasingly depend on AI infrastructure and its own ability to bring Helios online.

Is NVIDIA financing its own demand?

NVIDIA has invested nearly $50 billion in frontier AI labs, according to 24/7 Wall St. It also provides take-or-pay commitments that set a revenue floor for NeoCloud facilities, linking its financing to the same infrastructure customers building AI capacity.

Critics call that arrangement circular financing, a charge the analysis did not dismiss. The source called the model smart, but wants more disclosure on who takes the credit risk when a promised customer cannot pay.

The distinction matters because the commitments support revenue without revealing which customers owe the money and can pay it. The source’s analysis leaves that risk allocation unresolved.

Can AMD turn Helios into growth?

AMD competes on total cost of ownership, the report said, and paired Helios with ROCm 10 to narrow its software gap. Lisa Su cited “very strong performance with the initial deployments,” a claim limited to the early rollout.

The source described AMD’s pitch as selling cheaper AI tokens through total cost of ownership, while NVIDIA uses financing and take-or-pay commitments to sustain demand for its full stack.

The push is costing cash. 24/7 Wall St. reported that AMD’s free cash flow fell 71% to $554 million while inventory reached $11.46 billion. AMD says it is building ahead of demand that exceeds supply, though the result still depends on customers absorbing that inventory.

The source put AMD on a steeper growth curve. AMD expects 2027 revenue to grow more than 80%, while NVIDIA expects about 70% growth in fiscal 2028 and says its outlook is limited by supply.

What could Congress change in January?

Washington wants control over where advanced chips go. Democratic Senate Leader Schumer called the White House’s defense of NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang “troubling.”

NVIDIA has already removed China Data Center compute from its outlook, according to 24/7 Wall St. China Hopper shipments account for less than 1% of Data Center revenue. The report argues that new export rules therefore have less forecast revenue left to take away.

AMD lists export regulations among its risks, leaving less certainty around where it can sell faster-growing rack systems. According to the report, aggressive congressional oversight in January would mainly tighten compliance and slow expansion abroad.

24/7 Wall St. expects that pressure to cap foreign revenue growth rather than eliminate demand for either core lineup. If Congress extends licensing rules to sovereign buyers, both outlooks face more direct pressure.

That buyer category already matters to NVIDIA. Its sovereign AI business grew 35% sequentially, according to the report, making sovereign-buyer rules a larger issue than the company’s limited China Hopper exposure.

Which company has the stronger export position?

24/7 Wall St. placed NVIDIA in the stronger position on export risk. The company sells the full stack, makes gross margins near 75% and has already removed China from its forecasts, according to the analysis.

NVIDIA’s stock fell 18.29% in a week, the report said, while the underlying business remained limited by supply. AMD offers a steeper growth curve, but its shares are already up 140.57% year to date, leaving expectations high.

That contrast supports the report’s rejection of a simple January chokeout thesis. NVIDIA has more forecast room to absorb tighter rules, according to the source, while AMD has more growth to protect and a higher bar set by its share performance.

What should investors watch next?

Memory costs bear watching, according to 24/7 Wall St. NVIDIA guides Q4 gross margin to 71% to 72%, putting the next margin test alongside constrained supply, AI-factory demand and a more complicated export regime.

The next checkpoints are concrete: whether January’s policy changes reach sovereign buyers, whether AMD’s ROCm 10 and Helios deployments sustain Lisa Su’s early performance claim, and whether NVIDIA discloses more about who bears the credit risk in its financing arrangements.

For customers, export policy is likely to determine where new AI systems can be deployed more than whether the racks get built. Both companies’ current forecasts still assume that AI infrastructure expands, which is why 24/7 Wall St. sees a ceiling on foreign growth rather than a collapse in demand.