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Nvidia Added $150 Billion to Its Buyback. One Strategist Says the Stock Is Still Cheap

Hightower's Stephanie Link is buying Nvidia as it trades at 16.7x forward earnings, its cheapest in a decade, after a record $150 billion buyback increase and 106% quarterly revenue growth.

By James Calloway5 min read

Updated

Why it matters

  • Nvidia added $150 billion to its buyback authorization on Sept. 28, bringing the total to $235 billion through fiscal 2028 — the largest increase in company history.
  • The stock trades at about 16.7 times forward earnings versus a five- and 10-year average of roughly 35 times, and has lagged the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 55% year to date.
  • Nvidia's revenue grew 106% year over year in its latest quarter, it holds roughly 97% of the server GPU market, and management expects roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028.

Nvidia added $150 billion to its share repurchase authorization on Sept. 28, bringing the remaining total to $235 billion — the largest buyback increase in the company's history. Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist at Hightower Advisors, calls the move one more reason to buy a stock she considers a best-in-breed company trading on sale.

Link started buying Nvidia in July, when the stock traded around $200. She liked it then. She likes it more now. Her division at Hightower manages $8.5 billion in assets, and she has 35 years of experience managing money, along with a seat on KKR's investment council.

The setup: a leader that has badly lagged its sector

The Santa Clara-based chipmaker sits at the center of the AI boom. Its graphics processing units provide the computing power behind many of the world's most advanced AI systems, while its software and computing platforms help customers build and run AI applications. That dominance is measurable: Nvidia holds roughly 97% of the server GPU market.

Yet the stock has dramatically underperformed the broader semiconductor sector. Nvidia has lagged the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 55% year to date and by 75% over the past year. The stock is up in 2025 — it trades near its 52-week high — but the gap against its peers is wide.

Link sees that disconnect as the opportunity. The stock's performance, in her view, looks especially disconnected from the strength of the underlying business. To her, this is a chance to buy the leader while it underperforms its peers.

The valuation is the cheapest in at least a decade

The underperformance has compressed Nvidia's multiple to levels Link says the market has not awarded the stock in at least a decade. Nvidia trades at about 16.7 times forward earnings, compared with an average of roughly 35 times earnings over both the past five and 10 years.

The expanded buyback adds to the case. The $150 billion increase brings the remaining authorization to $235 billion, which Nvidia expects to execute through fiscal 2028. That figure equals roughly 4% of Nvidia's market value — similar in scale to Apple's then-record $110 billion buyback authorization in 2024.

Link believes the valuation could become even more compelling as earnings grow. She projects Nvidia will generate roughly $22 per share in earnings in fiscal 2028. At the current share price, that would put the stock at only about 10.7 times those earnings. For a company with Nvidia's growth rate and dominant market position, she calls that an attractive valuation.

The business is not slowing down

The stock's underperformance has not been matched by any slowdown in the business. Nvidia's revenue jumped 106% from a year earlier in its latest quarter, and management expects roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028. The company has also said demand is exceeding supply through 2028.

Nvidia has more going for it than its current generation of GPUs, Link argues. Its proprietary software platform has become an industry standard. Newer computing platforms, including Blackwell and Vera Rubin, are expanding its capabilities. The company is also moving further into the CPU market.

Demand across the industry remains exceptionally strong, and other chipmakers are confirming it. Micron said Wednesday evening on its earnings call that memory demand continues to exceed available supply as AI infrastructure spending grows. In Link's view, Nvidia's gross margins have also been derisked at around 72%.

Why this matters for the AI trade

Nvidia is the clearest public-market proxy for the tens of billions being spent on AI infrastructure. When the dominant supplier of AI compute — a company with roughly 97% of the server GPU market — trades at its cheapest multiple in a decade while revenue grows at triple digits, the gap between market sentiment and the underlying buildout of AI capacity becomes the story. Micron's comment that memory demand exceeds supply reinforces the point that constraint in the AI hardware chain, not demand weakness, is the defining condition through 2028.

Link's argument is straightforward: the market is pricing Nvidia like a maturing business while it behaves like an accelerating one. Her fiscal 2028 estimate of $22 per share in earnings, which management's own growth guidance of roughly 70% revenue growth supports, would compress the multiple to about 10.7 times. The record $235 billion buyback authorization through fiscal 2028, roughly 4% of market value, gives the company a direct mechanism to support the stock while that gap closes.

Not everyone will agree with the framing, and Link discloses that she owns shares in Hightower Advisors. Her case rests on three concrete pillars: a valuation at 16.7 times forward earnings versus a historical average near 35, a record buyback, and growth rates — 106% revenue growth in the latest quarter with roughly 70% expected in fiscal 2028 — that few companies of Nvidia's scale have ever sustained.

Bottom line

Link's conclusion is blunt. Nvidia remains the dominant player in AI computing, and the business is still growing at an extraordinary rate. Its leadership in GPUs, software and next-generation computing platforms gives it multiple ways to benefit as AI investment expands. She sees a company with tremendous earnings power that the stock's current valuation simply does not reflect.

That is why she is still buying — and why the next test of the thesis will come as Nvidia executes the $235 billion buyback and reports whether the roughly 70% revenue growth it has guided for fiscal 2028 materializes.

Source: CNBC Tech

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James Calloway

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News editor covering industry trends and analytics at AI In Context.

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