Jensen Huang Lost $6.47 Billion on Nvidia Shares in a Day. Wall Street Trimmed Its Targets

Jensen Huang lost $6.47 billion on his own Nvidia shares in a single trading day, and by the next morning two of Wall Street's biggest banks had cut their price targets on the stock. Nvidia closed Monday at $178.67, down $7.97, or 4.3%, one day after its board opened an independent investigation into reports that its founder was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. Across all 24.1 billion Nvidia shares, the drop erased roughly $192 billion of market value.

Huang's 811,521,160 shares, the count in his most recent Form 4, absorbed $6.47 billion of that loss. The founder's one-day hit, followed by target cuts from Citi and Wells Fargo, signals that Wall Street has started to price the possibility of Nvidia running without him. But the limits of that reading matter too: both banks still see the stock 60% to 68% above Monday's close, and analyst Dan Ives wrote that the Street is factoring in about an 85% chance that Huang stays.

For a company at the center of the AI buildout, the stakes are simple: Nvidia's market value and dealmaking momentum rest heavily on one founder, and investors are now measuring that risk in dollars.

What changed Tuesday morning?

Citi cut its Nvidia target to $285 from $315 at 5:32 AM ET, according to MT Newswires. Its analyst Atif Malik, in a note quoted by Yahoo Finance, laid out the open questions: "potential governance implications, increased regulatory scrutiny and export-control compliance of the flow of H200 chips into China (<1% of DC sales) and routed through other intermediaries, and longer-term impact on leadership stability. The company has stated that Mr. Huang will remain CEO while the investigation proceeds."

Wells Fargo cut its target to $300 from $315 about 40 minutes later. The new targets sit 60% and 68% above Monday's close, so these are trims — the first since the board's statement — not verdicts.

Morningstar kept its $310 fair value and added "investigations and espionage" to the risks behind its "very high" uncertainty rating. Its analyst Brian Colello wrote that Huang's departure "could lead to less AI dealmaking and financing, greater regulation, and more political backlash around artificial intelligence." He also noted that demand for AI computing still runs ahead of supply, so the firm expects no effect on revenue in the near or medium term.

The takeaway: analysts are pricing uncertainty, not collapse — every published target still sits far above the trading price.

What else happened since Monday's close?

The story moved fast on several fronts:

• President Trump told reporters the FBI "is looking into" Huang, that he had asked Huang whether he knew the woman was a spy, and that Huang "said I had no idea."
• A shareholder filed a proposed class action in federal court in San Francisco on Monday over Nvidia's statements about its dealings with Megaspeed, the Singapore customer where the woman was an executive.
• The Information reported Tuesday, citing two people who know her, that the relationship helped at least $7.5 billion of Nvidia chips reach China. Reuters said it could not verify the report, and Nvidia did not immediately comment.
• Dan Ives wrote on X that the Street is "factoring in ~15% chance Jensen gone from Nvidia, 85% he stays as CEO."
• Jim Cramer said investors "are going to have to consider owning shares in a Jensen-less Nvidia."
• The stock traded near $182 before Tuesday's open, up about 1.8%, according to Barron's.

What is Huang's stake actually worth now?

Huang's Form 4, filed Sept. 18, breaks the holding into pieces: 70,100,666 shares held directly, 467,693,547 in the Jen-Hsun and Lori Huang Living Trust, 140,461,613 in two irrevocable trusts, and 133,265,334 in six LLCs the living trust owns. That totals 811,521,160 shares, about 3.4% of the company.

Nvidia's proxy puts his beneficial ownership at 870,604,104 shares, but 58,683,830 of those belong to the family foundation, in which the proxy says he has no financial interest.

At Monday's close the stake was worth $145.0 billion, down from $151.5 billion on Friday and $194.1 billion at the record close of $239.24 on Oct. 6. Monday cost him $6.47 billion. Since the record, the stake has lost $49.2 billion.

The size of the holding is also the reason Morningstar thinks he may stay: a founder who owns 3.4% of a $4.3 trillion company is hard to push out, and the board has said it has confidence in him.

What do past board investigations tell us?

Three times in the last eight years, a board reviewed the personal conduct of the man running a big company, and each time he left:

• Intel said before the open on June 21, 2018 that Brian Krzanich had resigned. From the prior close of $53.46, the stock fell 2.4% the first day, 2.9% after a month, and 14.8% after six months.
• McDonald's removed Steve Easterbrook on Nov. 3, 2019. From $193.94, the stock fell 2.7% the first day, was up 0.2% a month later, and down 6.2% after six months — a window that ended in the pandemic crash of 2020.
• Wynn Resorts formed a special committee the day The Wall Street Journal published allegations against Steve Wynn, Jan. 26, 2018. From $200.60, the stock fell 10.1% that day, 16.7% in a month, and 18.5% in six months.

Nvidia's board kept Huang in the job while it investigates and has said it has confidence in him, so these cases are a guide, not a forecast. What they share is the shape of the loss: the first day was the small part, and the months after the executive left were where the money went.

What does key-person risk look like in real dollars?

Consider a 67-year-old retired engineer who bought 300 Nvidia shares on Jan. 3, 2023 at $143.15, for $42,945, in a taxable account. The 10-for-1 split in June 2024 made that 3,000 shares with a cost basis of $14.32 each.

At the record close they were worth $717,720. On Friday they were worth $559,920, and on Monday $536,010. Monday cost $23,910. Since Oct. 6, the position has given back $181,710 — and it is still up $493,065 on what was paid.

With $2,400,000 in total assets, Nvidia is 22.3% of the portfolio. If the stock followed Intel's six-month path from here, the position would be worth $456,601 — another $79,409 gone. On Wynn's path, $436,584 — another $99,426. That is key-person risk in numbers you can picture: more than a fifth of a retirement riding on one investigation.

Trimming to 10% of the portfolio means keeping 1,343 shares and selling 1,657 for $296,056. The long-term gain on those shares is $272,336. With about $110,000 of other income, taxable income stays under the $613,700 threshold where the 20% capital gains rate starts, so the federal tax on the gain is 15%, or $40,850. The 3.8% net investment income tax applies to the part of income above $250,000, which is $132,336, adding $5,029. The total comes to $45,879, and the trim nets $250,177 after tax.

Selling half in December and half in January changes one line. Each year's gain is $136,168, income stays under $250,000, and the net investment income tax disappears. The two-year tax is $40,850 — a saving of $5,029 for a four-week wait. Either way, the return Medicare reads two years from now will show the gain, so one year of a Part B surcharge is part of the price.

The bottom line: Huang's stake lost $6.47 billion on Monday, Citi cut to $285 and Wells Fargo to $300, and the Street's own guess is an 85% chance he stays. For holders, the decision is about concentration, not prediction — and the board's next move will set the terms.