Anthropic IPO on track for record $250 million retail buying day

By James Calloway

Anthropic's market debut could draw roughly $250 million in net retail buying, double the $118 million record set by SpaceX's IPO, according to a Wednesday note from Vanda Research. Shares are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq on November 19, with the company targeting a valuation of up to $1.4 trillion.

The stakes are straightforward: if Vanda's estimate holds, Anthropic would deliver one of the biggest single-day retail purchases in the firm's dataset. That matters for a market still calibrating how much individual investors — as opposed to institutions — move the price of newly listed AI companies. Only six stocks have topped $250 million in single-day retail buying since 2024, the data firm said.

Where the $250 million figure comes from

Vanda Research, a firm that tracks retail investor flows, built its projection from two inputs. The first is its analysis of retail activity on listing days generally. The second is trading volume in Anthropic's pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid, a crypto derivatives exchange.

"Judging by pre-IPO perp trading, Anthropic is shaping up to be a record retail IPO," Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research, said in the note.

The firm was blunt about the broader signal. "Anthropic next week could draw the kind of retail buying that we've rarely seen in our data," Vanda said.

Takeaway: the record call rests on derivatives volumes, not on orders actually placed for IPO shares.

What are pre-IPO perpetual futures?

Pre-IPO perpetual futures are derivative contracts that trade on exchanges such as Hyperliquid and Coinbase. They let traders bet on the valuation of private companies — companies whose shares do not yet trade publicly.

Two features define them. They have no direct link to the underlying shares. And they are priced with reference to the company's latest disclosed pre-IPO valuation.

That second point is where a skeptic should pause. A futures contract referenced to a private valuation is a bet on a benchmark, not a claim on equity. Volumes there measure speculation about Anthropic's worth, not committed demand for its stock. Vanda treats that speculation as a proxy for eventual retail buying — a reasonable read, but a proxy all the same.

Takeaway: these instruments gauge sentiment about a private valuation; they cannot settle into actual shares.

How big is $250 million in context?

The number needs framing. Vanda pegs the projected $250 million in net retail buying at twice SpaceX's IPO record of $118 million. Since 2024, only six stocks have exceeded $250 million in single-day retail buying across Vanda's entire dataset.

That comparison cuts both ways. Matching the top handful of retail events since 2024 would make Anthropic's debut historic by the firm's measure. But $250 million is net retail buying — the aggregate purchases of individual investors minus their sales — not the IPO's total size, and not what institutions commit. Vanda's note does not say what share of total first-day volume retail flows would represent. That omission matters: retail enthusiasm and retail price-setting power are different things.

Takeaway: record-setting for retail flows, yes — but the note is silent on how much of the whole market that represents.

The listing itself

The concrete facts of the deal are these. Anthropic is targeting a valuation of up to $1.4 trillion in its IPO. Shares are expected to start trading on the Nasdaq on November 19. The retail-flow forecast comes from Vanda Research, published Wednesday, ahead of that date.

A $1.4 trillion target would place Anthropic among the most valuable companies to list in recent memory. Whether retail buyers show up in record numbers on November 19 — and whether that buying supports the target valuation — is the test Vanda has effectively set for itself. Pre-IPO derivatives volume suggested one outcome; the order book on debut day will confirm or refute it.

What could break the forecast?

Vanda's method has visible seams. The projection extrapolates from Hyperliquid perpetual futures, a crypto-market instrument, to Nasdaq equity flows. The two populations of traders may overlap, but the note does not quantify how much. Crypto-native speculators betting on a valuation reference point are not necessarily the same investors who will buy listed shares through brokerage accounts.

The record comparison also deserves scrutiny. SpaceX's $118 million figure is the prior benchmark, and doubling it sounds decisive. Yet Vanda does not disclose in the note the full distribution of listing-day retail flows, only that six stocks since 2024 have crossed the $250 million threshold. A debut landing just above $250 million would tie that small group rather than shatter it.

Finally, net buying is a flow, not a verdict. Retail investors could pour $250 million into Anthropic shares on day one and still see the stock trade below its IPO price if institutional sellers outweigh them. The note forecasts demand, not performance.

Takeaway: the estimate is a well-sourced inference with untested links between crypto derivatives and equity markets.

Why this matters beyond one listing

The episode marks a shift in how IPO demand gets forecast. Traditionally, bankers read indications of interest from institutional investors. Vanda is reading retail appetite from a derivatives market that did not meaningfully exist for this purpose in earlier IPO cycles. If the method proves accurate on November 19, expect more strategists to mine Hyperliquid and Coinbase pre-IPO contracts as a demand signal for future listings.

For Anthropic, the retail question compounds the valuation question. A company targeting up to $1.4 trillion needs buyers at every tier of the market. Record retail participation would broaden the buyer base on day one; it would also concentrate first-day price action among the least price-sensitive investors — a dynamic Vanda's note does not address.

What to watch on November 19

The verifiable markers are few and clean:

• Whether net retail buying in Anthropic shares reaches Vanda's approximate $250 million projection on the first trading day.
• Whether that figure exceeds SpaceX's $118 million IPO record, making Anthropic the new benchmark for retail debut flows.
• Whether Anthropic's valuation approaches the $1.4 trillion target once Nasdaq trading begins.
• Whether the correlation between Hyperliquid pre-IPO futures volume and actual retail equity buying holds — the load-bearing assumption in Vanda's entire analysis.

Vanda Research has published its forecast with a named strategist behind it and a specific number attached. The market will grade it within days. If Anthropic's debut lands near $250 million in net retail buying, pre-IPO perpetual futures will have earned a place in the IPO forecaster's toolkit; if it falls short, the crypto-derivatives signal will have failed its first high-profile test.