Anthropic investors call $1.5 trillion valuation a 'stretch' as IPO nears

Anthropic investors are now calling even a $1.5 trillion valuation a "stretch," down from the $2 trillion the company had been targeting for its IPO just weeks ago. The shift, reported by CNBC following tech's selloff on Wall Street this week, lands with the company's Nasdaq debut expected in a matter of weeks under the ticker ANT.

The numbers tell the story plainly. As of May, Anthropic was privately valued at $965 billion. Last month, reports said the company was seeking as much as $2 trillion in its listing. Now, with markets in turmoil, one investor told CNBC that $1 trillion to $1.25 trillion is a more likely target — though that figure could still move with market conditions. The investors spoke on condition of anonymity because they're not authorized to discuss the matter. Anthropic itself declined to comment.

Why are expectations falling now?

Two forces are squeezing the valuation at the same time, and both matter for anyone tracking the AI sector's next chapter.

The first is the market itself. The Nasdaq plummeted more than 5% on Thursday, its steepest drop in 19 months. That single session crystallized fears that Democrats' newfound power in Washington, D.C., combined with what CNBC describes as a nationwide rebuke of AI, will slow the buildout of data centers. Less data center construction means less demand for the compute that AI companies like Anthropic depend on.

The second force is spending anxiety. Concerns about the outsized spending by AI companies were already growing before the election. The Nasdaq suffered its worst month in October since March 2025, with chipmakers and neoclouds leading the declines. In other words, investors were already turning bearish on the AI trade before this week's slump made it worse.

The takeaway: this isn't a sudden crisis of confidence in one company — it's a broader repricing of the entire AI trade, and Anthropic's IPO is arriving right into the middle of it.

What do analysts expect from the pricing?

Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, told CNBC that "Investors will expect the IPO to be priced at least at the low end of previous expectations."

Luria also flagged what's at stake for the deal itself. "The market really needs this IPO to go well and the bankers on the deal surely understand that," he said. "The best way to set Anthropic up for success is to price the deal well."

That last quote carries real weight. Luria is saying, in effect, that this listing has become a test case for the whole sector's health. If the deal is priced too aggressively and trades poorly, it could damage sentiment far beyond Anthropic's own shareholder base. The bankers, in his framing, hold the lever: pricing the deal conservatively is the safest route to a successful debut.

How steep is the haircut investors are pricing in?

Run the arithmetic and the scale of the reset becomes clear:

• $2 trillion: the valuation Anthropic was reportedly seeking as recently as last month
• $1.5 trillion: the figure now in doubt, with one investor calling it a "stretch"
• $1 trillion to $1.25 trillion: the range one investor now sees as a more likely target
• $965 billion: Anthropic's private valuation as of May

Even the top of the new range represents a roughly 40% cut from the $2 trillion goal. The bottom of it sits barely above the company's May private mark. For a company that had been positioned as one of the most valuable private firms in the AI sector, the compression is dramatic — and it has happened in a matter of weeks.

One caveat from the sources themselves: the $1 trillion to $1.25 trillion figure is not fixed. The unnamed investor who offered it said it could change with market conditions. If the Nasdaq stabilizes before the roadshow, expectations could climb back up; if the selloff deepens, they could fall further.

What happens next?

Anthropic is expected to kick off its roadshow next week, according to CNBC. The roadshow is the stretch where bankers and executives pitch institutional investors on the listing and gather demand signals that shape the final pricing. That means the gap between the old $2 trillion hope and the new $1 trillion-to-$1.25 trillion reality will get tested in real time, investor by investor, over the coming days.

The listing itself is set for the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, with the debut expected in a matter of weeks. Between now and then, the numbers that matter are Thursday's more-than-5% Nasdaq drop, October's worst month since March 2025, and the low end of expectations that Luria says investors will demand.

The stakes extend past one company. As Luria put it, the market "really needs this IPO to go well" — and how bankers price the deal next week will signal whether the AI sector's most valuable listings can still command premium valuations, or whether the post-election selloff has permanently reset the ceiling.